India's Role in the Changing Nuclear Order

India's Role in the Changing Nuclear Order

The global nuclear order is undergoing a profound transformation as major powers such as the U.S., China, and Russia, along with emerging actors, challenge established norms and arms control frameworks. Conflicts like Russia-Ukraine and Israel-Hamas reveal growing reliance on nuclear weapons for intimidation and geopolitical leverage, signaling a breakdown of international nuclear restraint. For India, this evolving landscape presents a unique challenge, particularly within its complex regional environment marked by rising nuclear capabilities and shifting alliances.

How is the Global Nuclear Order Changing?
Geopolitical Rivalries Reshape Nuclear Dynamics:
Escalating competition between the U.S. and China is redefining global nuclear strategies.

• China’s rapid nuclear expansion, including hypersonic weaponry, marks a departure from minimal deterrence, challenging U.S. dominance in the Indo-Pacific.
• By 2024, China reportedly possesses over 500 nuclear warheads, while U.S. efforts such as military aid to Taiwan and the AUKUS partnership aim to counterbalance Beijing’s influence.

Technological Disruptions Heighten Strategic Risks:
Breakthroughs in AI, cyberwarfare, and space-based technologies are destabilizing traditional nuclear doctrines like Mutually Assured Destruction (MAD).

• AI-driven defense systems, such as DARPA's Agatha or Elbit Systems’ innovations, illustrate the integration of advanced tech into strategic frameworks.
• These developments introduce new vulnerabilities in nuclear command-and-control systems.

Resurgence of a Nuclear Arms Race:
Non-compliance with arms control agreements is fueling a global nuclear buildup.

• Iran’s violation of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) emboldens other nations to question treaty effectiveness.
• In South Asia, India’s development of Agni-V ICBMs and Pakistan’s focus on tactical nuclear weapons exacerbate regional tensions, especially as China’s arsenal surpasses both India’s and Pakistan’s combined.

Cyber Threats to Nuclear Infrastructure:
The rising potential for cyberattacks poses severe risks to nuclear security.

• The 2019 Kudankulam malware attack highlighted India’s vulnerabilities, while global incidents like Stuxnet emphasize the danger of cyber exploitation in nuclear facilities.

Erosion of Multilateral Arms Control Mechanisms:
Key global agreements are weakening as major powers prioritize unilateral strategies.

• The Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) framework faces diminishing credibility, and initiatives like the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons (TPNW) are ignored by nuclear-armed states.

Civilian Nuclear Programs Linked to Military Strategies:
The dual-use nature of nuclear technology is increasingly being exploited.

• Nations such as South Korea and Japan are advancing civilian nuclear programs, potentially as latent deterrence mechanisms or for strategic flexibility.

India’s Stance on Nuclear Weapons
Peaceful Nuclear Energy Use:
India champions nuclear energy for sustainable development and reducing carbon emissions.

• It operates 22 nuclear reactors and actively engages in international safety protocols, including the Convention on Nuclear Safety.

No First Use (NFU) Commitment:
India maintains a No First Use policy, ensuring nuclear weapons are used only as a retaliatory deterrent.

• However, India’s 2003 Nuclear Doctrine allows flexibility in response to evolving threats.

Strategic Autonomy in Non-Proliferation:
India aligns with the objectives of the NPT but criticizes its discriminatory framework.

• It actively engages in nuclear commerce under a special waiver from the Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG).

Balancing Civilian and Strategic Goals:
India emphasizes self-reliance in nuclear technology, advancing thorium-based reactors through its indigenous three-stage nuclear program.

Nuclear Energy and Climate Goals:
As part of its net-zero emissions commitment, India is expanding its nuclear energy capacity, which currently accounts for 3% of electricity generation.

Challenges India Faces in the Shifting Nuclear Landscape

1. Breakdown of Arms Control Agreements:
   The collapse of treaties like New START increases global proliferation risks, limiting India’s access to advanced technologies.
2. Tactical Nuclear Risks:
   Pakistan’s tactical nuclear weapons and China’s growing arsenal create potential escalation risks during conventional conflicts.
3. Cyber and Technological Vulnerabilities:
   Advancements in hypersonics, AI, and cyber tools expose India’s nuclear infrastructure to new threats.
4. Multipolar Nuclear Alliances:
   The China-Russia partnership, coupled with nuclear cooperation with Pakistan, undermines regional stability.
5. Pressure on NFU Policy:
   Tactical nuclear developments by adversaries could force India to recalibrate its No First Use stance.
6. Economic and Environmental Concerns:
   India’s ambitious nuclear expansion poses significant safety and sustainability challenges, exacerbated by risks of nuclear accidents in conflict zones.

Steps for India to Address Nuclear Challenges
Strengthen Deterrence and Modernization:

• Enhance second-strike capability through submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs).
• Invest in hypersonic weapons and Multiple Independently Targetable Reentry Vehicles (MIRVs).

Bolster Cybersecurity:

• Develop cutting-edge systems to safeguard nuclear infrastructure, including AI-driven monitoring and response mechanisms.

Refine NFU Policy:

• Introduce strategic ambiguity to deter adversaries while maintaining credible minimum deterrence.

Accelerate Indigenous Nuclear Technology:

• Fast-track thorium reactor development and small modular reactor (SMR) projects for energy resilience.

Strengthen Nuclear Command Systems:

• Upgrade communication and decision-making infrastructure with AI-enabled early-warning systems.

Engage in Global Arms Control:

• Lead efforts to modernize international agreements addressing emerging technologies.
• Revive initiatives like the Rajiv Gandhi Action Plan for global disarmament.

Utilize Regional Alliances:

• Strengthen Quad cooperation in nuclear risk mitigation and maritime security.
• Partner with regional allies like Japan to secure nuclear supply chains.

Enhance Public Awareness and Transparency:

• Regularly update citizens on nuclear safety measures and India’s strategic doctrines to foster trust and deter misinformation.

Key Takeaways
The unraveling of the global nuclear order presents India with critical challenges and opportunities. By modernizing its arsenal, safeguarding infrastructure, and advancing diplomatic initiatives, India can navigate this volatile environment. Striking a balance between self-reliance and international collaboration will not only protect national interests but also contribute to global nuclear stability.

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